GWPF has Matt Ridley's "The Perils of Confirmation Bias":
The modus operandi of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPPC) has been to accumulate evidence to champion rather than challenge
a hypothesis, namely that rising carbon dioxide levels will in future
cause dangerous climate change.
The climate models reliance on fudge factors is a particularly egregious example. The reason that climate science is broken?
Every important new idea in science is “replicated” or tested by
another team than the one that put forward the idea. And it is this
process that has gone missing in climate science. It is unreasonable to
expect a climate scientist to seek evidence against his favoured
hypothesis; but it is not unreasonable to expect governments to back the
partisans of other hypotheses: that man-made climate change may be real
but not dangerous because of lack of positive feedbacks; that it may be
less powerful than some natural causes of change; or that there are
negative feedbacks that reduce the effects of man-made warming.
Instead of this, anybody who champions one of these hypotheses
is often accused of “denial” or of not “believing” in climate change,
and frequently subjected to a surprising level of abuse.
Climate scientists and their media champions equate such
scepticism with scepticism about, say, the theory of evolution. Yet
evolution is an explanation of facts; dangerous man-made climate change
is a prediction about the future. Theories about the future are always
less reliable than theories about the past. I can have confidence that
the reports that it rained last Tuesday are true, while doubting the
forecast that it will rain next Tuesday. Besides there are many examples
of scientific orthodoxies that brooked little dissent in their heyday
and yet were often wrong, such as behaviourism and Freudianism. In one
case, the parallel with climate science is uncomfortably close.
No comments:
Post a Comment